Who Would You Bet On? Conor McGregor vs Holloway UFC 329

Conor McGregor is back. After five years away from the octagon, he returns on July 11 at UFC 329 to face Max Holloway in a welterweight rematch 13 years in the making.

UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 – Fight Details

Why This Fight is Massive

This is not just a rematch. It is a 13-year story centered on two fighters from completely different worlds.

When they first met in August 2013, McGregor was a 25-year-old prospect on just his second UFC appearance. Holloway was 21. McGregor won a unanimous decision, but neither man was remotely close to their peak.

McGregor became the biggest star in MMA history. He knocked out Jose Aldo in 13 seconds at UFC 194. He added the lightweight belt by stopping Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205 in Madison Square Garden.

He fought Floyd Mayweather in a boxing match that generated $600 million. He faced Khabib at UFC 229 in what became one of the biggest sporting events of the decade. Then came the decline. Back-to-back losses to Dustin Poirier. A broken leg at UFC 264 in July 2021. Five years out.

Holloway went the other way. He put together a 13-fight winning streak after losing to McGregor. He became the featherweight champion. He finished Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 with one of the best knockouts in UFC history – a last-second left hand as the final horn sounded. He won the BMF title. He lost it to Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 in March 2026, competing at lightweight (155 lbs). Now he jumps up another 15 pounds to welterweight for the biggest payday of his career.

Jackbit UFC 329 Odds

Jackbit has odds up for the full UFC 329 Fights. Here are all the odds, and what they mean.

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Bet UFC 329 at Jackbit – First Bet Risk-Free up to $100

All odds below are live from Jackbit as of May 2026. The main event line has already moved – McGregor opened at 4.59 and has since tightened to 3.87 as money comes in on the underdog. Check Jackbit Casino for the latest before you place anything.

Odds correct as of May 2026. Lines are moving – check Jackbit for the latest price before placing.

A quick note on what these numbers mean. The implied probability is the odds that each fighter has of winning, before accounting for the bookmaker’s margin. Holloway at 82.0% and McGregor at 25.8% add up to 107.8%, not 100%. That 7.8% is Jackbit’s built-in edge. The true probabilities are slightly lower for both fighters than the implied figures suggest.

Not sure how parlays or implied probability work? Our sports betting strategy guide breaks it down before you place anything.

Jackbit Sports Offer: Risk-Free First Bet up to $100

New to Jackbit? Sign up using our Jackbit promo code SMPBONUS, and your first sports ticket is protected, plus you get 100 wager-free spins. If it loses, you get the stake back as a free bet – up to $100. No complicated wagering attached to the refund. Just a clean second chance on your opening bet.

How it works

• Sign up at Jackbit  – use our Jackbit promo code SMPBONUS
• Build a qualifying ticket with at least 4 selections
• Each selection must be priced at 1.4 decimal / -250 American or above
• Minimum stake $20 – maximum $100
• If the ticket loses, Jackbit credits the stake back as a free bet
• Free bet winnings are paid out – the free bet stake is not returned

Which UFC 329 fighters qualify for the 4-leg minimum?

Your qualifying bet needs 4 selections at a minimum of 1.4 decimal odds each. Not every fighter on the card clears that bar. Here is what qualifies and what does not:

Holloway at 1.22 and Steveson at 1.04 both fall below the 1.4 minimum. You cannot use either as a qualifying leg. Every other fighter on the card clears the bar. McGregor at 3.87 is your strongest qualifying leg from the main event.

Risk-free bet key conditions

The free bet follows the same rules as the qualifying bet – 4 selections, 1.4 minimum odds each. Plan both tickets before you place the first one. Do not modify your slip after placing it, as it will automatically remove you from the offer.

Claim Your Risk-Free First Bet at Jackbit

What the Jackbit Odds Tell You

Holloway at 1.22 (-455) is one of the heaviest favorites you will see in a UFC main event. The implied probability of 82% means the market gives McGregor roughly a one-in-four shot – even before accounting for Jackbit’s margin. Strip that out, and McGregor’s true implied probability is closer to 24%.

That is the market’s honest assessment of a five-year layoff against an active, high-output fighter. It is not generous to McGregor. But at 3.87 (+287), a McGregor winner bet returns $287 on a $100 stake. That is meaningful if you believe the left hand can still land early.

The line has already moved. McGregor opened at 4.59 (+359) on announcement night. He is now 3.87 (+287). Money has come in on the underdog. If that trend continues through fight week, the McGregor price will keep tightening. If you are going to take the flyer, it’s better to do so earlier.

The Case For Holloway at 1.22

He has been active – McGregor has not

This is the single biggest factor in the fight. Holloway has competed at the highest level for the past five years. McGregor has never competed in MMA. His last win was a 40-second stoppage of Donald Cerrone in January 2020 – a fading fighter on a losing run. Five years away from live competition at 37 years old is not a minor concern. It is the whole conversation.

Holloway’s output will compound

Holloway is the highest-volume striker in UFC history. He gets better as the fights go longer. McGregor is the opposite – a fast starter who fades when the pace stays high. Against Nate Diaz at UFC 196, he gassed in round two and got submitted. Against Poirier, the same story. A five-round fight at welterweight against a man who throws relentless volume is exactly where McGregor does not want to be past the second round.

The recent record is not close

McGregor is 3-4 in his last seven UFC fights, going back to his loss to Diaz in March 2016. Holloway went 13-0 in that same period before eventually losing to Topuria and Oliveira. The trajectory of both careers over the last decade points in only one direction.

The Case For Conor McGregor at 3.87

The left hand is still there

McGregor’s southpaw left straight is one of the most dangerous single punches in UFC history. It knocked out Aldo in 13 seconds. It stopped Eddie Alvarez. At welterweight, he would carry more power than at featherweight. One punch in the first two rounds ends this fight regardless of anything else.

Holloway just lost at lightweight

Holloway’s last outing was a lopsided five-round loss to Charles Oliveira at UFC 326. He looked flat, struggled on the ground, and lost the BMF title convincingly. Now he is jumping up another 15 pounds to welterweight. If he carries any residual doubt from that performance, McGregor can exploit it early.

The value argument

At 3.87, McGregor does not need to be the likely winner to be worth a small stake. He needs to win roughly 26% of the time for the bet to break even. Given his knockout power and the genuine uncertainty around a five-year comeback, that is not an unreasonable threshold. The honest answer is: this is not a value bet in the traditional sense. But it is not the worst speculative punt in the world either.

Our Prediction

Holloway is the smarter pick. The logic is straightforward – five years out of competition, facing a high-volume elite striker who gets better the longer the fight goes. If this passes round two, Holloway wins clearly.

The three bets worth considering on Jackbit:

• Holloway to win – at 1.22, it is short, but it is the correct pick. Only worth the stake if you are building a parlay and need a safe leg
• McGregor to win – rounds 1 or 2 – the only realistic McGregor path is an early KO. A small stake on a method-of-victory or round-specific market gives you the upside without overcommitting
• 4-leg parlay using the risk-free offer – McGregor (3.87) + Saint-Denis (1.52) + Sandhagen (1.60) + Royval (2.31) gives you a qualifying ticket at well above the 1.4 minimum on each leg. Combined odds are roughly 17.7. If it loses, your $100 comes back as a free bet

Do not stake more than you can afford to lose on any of these. This is a fight with genuine unknowns – a five-year layoff is unprecedented at this level. Treat it as entertainment with a controlled stake.

Build Your UFC 329 Parlay at Jackbit – First Bet Risk-Free

Responsible Gambling

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18+ only. Gambling involves risk. Jackbit terms apply to all offers. Odds correct at time of writing – verify at jackbit.com before placing.